$6 a Gallon and Climbing: What the Iran War Means for California Drivers This Summer
For most of the country, $4 gas feels expensive. In California, $4 gas is a fond memory.
Eleven weeks into the U.S.-Iran conflict, California drivers are paying an average of $6.15 per gallon — the highest in the nation by a wide margin. And according to energy analysts and state officials, the worst may not have arrived yet.
When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most consequential oil export corridors in the world, global energy markets reacted immediately. The disruption cut off a significant share of global crude oil supply, sending prices upward across the board. California felt it faster and harder than most states, for a reason that’s been a long time in the making: the state’s growing dependence on imported oil.
For decades, California produced meaningful quantities of its own crude. That’s no longer true. Refinery closures, regulatory constraints, and the state’s deliberate push away from fossil fuels as part of its climate agenda have steadily reduced domestic production. That leaves California more exposed to global supply shocks than virtually any other state. When the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, there was no domestic cushion to fall back on.
Siva Gunda, vice chair of the California Energy Commission, told a state Assembly oversight committee last week that supply looks stable through roughly mid-June. After that, California will have to compete on the open market — outbidding buyers in Asia and elsewhere to secure shipments. That competition comes at a cost. Consumers pay it at the pump.
Gunda said California is negotiating long-term supply contracts with Asian refiners to lock in additional months of stability. But “stability” in this context means stability of supply, not stability of price. The price is still going up.
The ripple effects extend beyond the gas station. Jet fuel has hit record levels, which is why airlines are raising fares and adding fees. Delta Air Lines alone has estimated the conflict will cost it an additional $2 billion this quarter. Some international carriers have already begun canceling routes. Freight costs are rising. Food prices are following. In a state where the cost of living was already a defining political problem, a prolonged energy shock is not an abstract concern — it’s a second punch to households already absorbing inflation, high rents, and stagnant wages.
Governor Gavin Newsom has laid the blame squarely at the feet of the federal government, arguing that Trump’s decision to enter a war without a coherent energy strategy has left states like California bearing the brunt. His office has noted that the state had no role in starting the conflict and limited tools to immediately offset its economic consequences.
That may be true. But California’s vulnerability to this kind of shock is also a product of its own policy choices over the past decade. The state has pursued an aggressive energy transition without fully building out the infrastructure to make that transition resilient. Those two things can both be true at the same time.
For drivers filling up in San Diego, Los Angeles, or Sacramento right now, the policy debate is secondary. The number on the screen is $6.15, and experts think it will be higher by August.
There is no short-term fix that changes that math substantially. The state can negotiate supply contracts, release strategic reserves, and push federal officials to resolve the conflict — and it is doing all of those things. But summer demand is about to spike, supply remains constrained, and the war in Iran has not ended.
California has faced energy crises before. This one, compounded by global conflict and years of structural exposure, is more complicated than most.