By Jose E. Navarro | The Navarro Report
SAN DIEGO, Oct. 28, 2026. When Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado stepped off a plane in Caracas on October 25, she revived a question Washington has largely sidestepped: who has the authority to commit Venezuela’s oil for a century?
The deal at issue was announced by the White House on August 31. Venezuela’s interim authorities, led by Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, granted North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) 100-year concessions on 17 oil fields holding about 65 billion barrels, roughly a fifth of the country’s proven reserves. The Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital receives a 35 percent equity stake in NABEP’s parent company, plus the right to buy 20 percent of output at production cost. President Trump called it “the biggest oil deal in world history.”
A contested chain of authority
Rodríguez was Nicolás Maduro’s vice president. After the July 2024 election, Venezuela’s electoral council declared Maduro the winner. The opposition published tally sheets from about 80 percent of voting machines showing Edmundo González winning by roughly two to one. The Carter Center and United Nations experts said the sheets were legitimate, and the United States recognized González as the winner.
After U.S. forces captured Maduro on January 3, the Supreme Tribunal ordered Rodríguez to assume the presidency on an interim basis, citing a “forced absence.” Constitutional scholars note that the charter contains no such category. It allows a vice president to cover a temporary absence for 90 days, extendable once by the National Assembly for 90 more. An absolute absence requires elections within 30 days. The first 90 days lapsed in April, and analysts writing in Opinio Juris say no absolute absence has been declared and the Assembly has not renewed her term. Her defenders argue the limits do not apply to what they call a kidnapping.
Washington, for its part, recognizes Rodríguez as head of state and has lifted sanctions on her, while saying she is not democratically elected and that a transition is required.
Three legal problems
First, the hydrocarbons law Rodríguez signed in January permits “production participation contracts,” not concessions of any length, according to analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Second, Article 302 of the constitution reserves the petroleum industry to the state. Third, Article 150 requires National Assembly approval of contracts with companies not domiciled in Venezuela.
The Assembly, led by Rodríguez’s brother Jorge and dominated by her party, backed the arrangement on September 1 in a show-of-hands vote. Reuters and Al Jazeera reported that some opposition lawmakers abstained, saying they had not seen the terms. The contract has still not been published, so whether that vote satisfies Article 150 depends on a document almost no one outside the deal has read.
Defenders of the arrangement make a serious case. Forbes contributor James Broughel calls the constitutional concern legitimate but notes the constitution is itself a product of the chavista era, and he suggests ratification by a freely elected Assembly in 2027 would put the deal on firmer ground. The State Department has accused Democratic critics of grandstanding.
Who bears the risk?
If a future elected government challenges the concessions, the exposure is considerable. The White House says NABEP will invest up to $100 billion and pay roughly $200 billion in royalties and taxes over 25 years. Rystad Energy says the $100 billion is a long-term funding requirement, not committed capital, and no financing structure has been disclosed. NABEP currently produces about 170,000 to 200,000 barrels a day and, according to reporting, won the concessions without competitive bidding.
Its chief executive, Alejandro Betancourt, has not been charged. The anti-corruption group Transparencia Venezuela, however, has accused his earlier power-plant company of overcharging the state by about $2.9 billion, and a Spanish justice official told reporters in 2021 that he was under investigation. Those are allegations, not findings.
The Pentagon’s stake sits in a privately held company, and House Democrats say officials gave no deal text at a September 14 closed briefing. A motion to subpoena records failed 6-6 along party lines.
Creditors have their own claim on the same oil. Reported claims against Venezuela range from about $150 billion to $238 billion, depending on the source, and one bondholder group holds roughly 37 percent of the debt, at least $22 billion, according to Bloomberg. A century-long private claim on the country’s best reserves narrows what remains for those creditors. Venezuela’s history, from the 1976 nationalization to the 2007 expropriations, shows how quickly oil contracts can be rewritten when governments change.
Machado’s party says she is ready to meet Rodríguez. The interim government has promised elections but has not set a date. Investors and taxpayers should ask a simple question: if Venezuelan voters choose the next government, will it honor a 100-year commitment made before they voted?
Jose E. Navarro, MBA, is the founder of The Navarro Report, an independent outlet focused on fiscal accountability, and a finance professional with more than 20 years of experience.